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Now that Boeing has decided to set up a second 787 Dreamliner final assembly line in Charleston SC., the question becomes, Will Boeing locate final assembly for other new airplanes, including the 737 follow on, somewhere other than the Seattle area?

And I believe that the answer to that question is most likely a YES, for the following reasons.

Reason one is that manufacturing follows cheap labor. Always has and always will.

There are so many examples of this that it should be self-evident. Electronics are being produced in East Asia, and all manner of goods are being made in China.

As to the American South, many automobile manufacturers, and some aircraft parts makers, have plants in that region, and seem to be doing well.

Reason two is that it is easier and more efficient to train a compliant work force, than manage a militant one.

This again has been proven over and over in many industries.

As a case in point, companies trying to get away from organized labor, probably have been the major driver for the development of manufacturing in the Southern US.

And speaking of labor, the point being made in Seattle about the trained manpower pool, seems somewhat overstated.

When people are laid off, they (and their skills) seem to evaporate by the time Boeing needs to hire them back. Like, how many times does one have to get laid off by Boeing, before finding a satisfactory job elsewhere.

And those factories operating in the South, both automotive and aircraft, dont seem to have any problem with availability of competent labor, and they certainly are not troubled by strikes.

And, one might ask why Boeing is in Seattle anyway? Since most historical advantages have disappeared. Cheap power to smelt aluminum, for example, is long gone.

At one time, earlier in the industry, aircraft manufacturing tended to group into in Clusters.

Aircraft engineering and manufacturing skills gravitated to these clusters. And in the old paper blueprint engineering culture, using large complex tooling, and with a limited transportation infrastructure, it made some sense to build the total airplane where it was designed.

But times have changed. Three of these clusters, the UK, Long Island, and Southern California, have already disappeared, and it seems that Puget Sound will be the next to go.

And why is this happening, one might ask.

First, with computerized design, and instantaneous transmission of massive quantities of accurate digital design data, the majority of the aircraft design can be done anywhere there is a pool of skilled engineers.

And now that design data can be instantly transmitted anywhere, finished aircraft assemblies, or whole portions of an airplane, for that matter, can be built anywhere resources are available. And with improved, faster, and lower cost freight transportation, those components can be shipped to any convenient point where labor is available, for assembly into a completed airplane.

One needs to look no further than the substantial portion of the Boeing 767 and 777 being built in Japan, or the 737 fuselages being built in Wichita, for example, to see that this is already happening.

And todays more mobile work force, particularly the more skilled people, will to some degree, tend to gravitate toward those newer production centers.

There is nothing inherently wrong with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner business or manufacturing plan. I believe that Boeing just stumbled badly in its execution. Actually, Airbus led the way with this remote design and manufacturing concept some twenty five years ago, and has been refining it ever since. They have even set up an aircraft final assembly line in China.

The point of this rather rambling discourse is that no matter what the Union or Boeing management do or say short term, the IAM guys around Seattle had better start saving their money, as well as getting their kids a college education, 'cause the good Union jobs are leaving town.

To give credit where credit is due, this writing is based on a lecture I gave at the Palm Springs Air Museum almost two years ago, and some thoughts garnered from Richard Aboulafia's extensive writings.

John Kuller was a mid level Boeing executive for many years, has worked for Airbus in Europe, and ran his own international aircraft consulting business.